Credit: Unsplash/Kel Avelino
By Maximilian Malawista
NEW YORK, May 16 2025 – The Gulf’s most powerful weapon isn’t a military, a United Nations (UN) Security Council seat, or a legacy of global diplomacy. Choosing multilateralism and mega-projects over militaries and old-world diplomacy, they are tipping the scale without firing a single shot. Their approach is more modern, where money, alliances, and an active vision for the future are the weapon of choice.
The UN’s 2030 Agenda is a framework for redefining global leadership, and it seems like the Gulf nations are stepping into it full force. As global policy moves towards renewable energy and farther away from fossil fuels, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, and Kuwait are the leading countries in global climate reform. Through their plans, from Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 to Kuwait’s Vision 2035, these Gulf states are not looking to rely on oil: they are actively diversifying their economies for the world’s market, and fast. They do this by promoting initiatives which support SDG 7: affordable and clean energy, SDG 13: climate action, and SDG 8: decent work and economic growth, setting the stage for a renewable, efficient, and clean world. The Gulf is showing that they don’t just want to escape the “resource curse” but rather redesign global leadership in its entirety.
While Gulf nations are actively diversifying, they are still heavily reliant on oil as a main driver in their economies. Saudi Arabia sees 40 percent of its 1.068 trillion USD GDP to be solely oil, the UAE sees 30 percent of their 514.1 billion USD GDP, Qatar follows with oil accounting for around 60 percent of their 213 billion USD GDP, and Kuwait at 50 percent of their 163.7 billion USD GDP. Not only is oil their main driver, but it is also their main global influence, as 21 percent of the world’s oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a shared border with the UAE.
Without Gulf oil, the world’s energy prices would skyrocket, easily putting many global powers into recessions. Powers like Europe, China, South Korea, Japan, the U.S., and India all rely on the Gulf for their energy needs, placing most of their oil dependence on the Gulf above other oil exporters.
However, with actions like the Paris Agreement, the Global Stocktake, and COP28, countries that have historically been big oil importers are now starting to shift towards renewable energy sources, hoping to eventually completely shift out of oil and reach net-zero emissions by 2050. This means reducing oil emissions by 43% by 2030, a huge hit to Gulf economies if they don’t pivot fast. A move away from oil means the crippling of the Gulf economies, but this is what Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait are prepared for.
In cities like Dubai, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Jeddah, Doha, and Kuwait City, the Gulf is now home to various desert mirages, all of which are putting their 2030 visions above all. Not only are they tourist destinations for the desert traveler, but home to businessmen and billionaire elites. The Gulf achieves this by making their cities expat-friendly. The UAE has topped the leaderboards with #1 in the world for movers, with Qatar at #3, and Saudi Arabia at #10, breaking the narrative of being strict for foreigners.
Each nation has strived to create a connectedness within their cities, using the English language for most if not all business transactions, and teaching it alongside or even without Arabic, depending on the type of schooling. 92 percent of Dubai’s population are expats, followed by Doha at 90 percent, Abu Dhabi at 80 percent, Kuwait City at 68 percent, Jeddah at 58 percent, and Riyadh at 52 percent. None of the main Gulf cities are Arab majorities nor majority Arabic-speaking, they are people from diverse backgrounds and foreign countries: numbers unseen anywhere else in the world.
Credit: Unsplash/Oskars Sylwan
A Challenge to the West:
The most stable economic expansion, zero crime, the geographic crossroads of Europe, Asia, and Africa, and allied with virtually the whole world, the Gulf has seen a surge in global mediations, sovereign wealth deposits, and UN activity at a faster rate than anywhere else.
Just this March, peace talks between the United States and Russia, amidst the Russia-Ukraine war, took place in Riyadh, highlighting its status as a close ally for both nations.
Ali Shihabi, a retired Saudi banker, now author and commentator, said: “I don’t think there’s another place where the leader has such a good personal relationship with both Trump and Putin.”
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Slam, or MBS, the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, has pushed for a modernization of Saudi Arabia, moving the kingdom away from rigid cultural traditions in daily life, and toward a more globally welcoming cosmopolitan society – a direction which has been echoed all throughout the Gulf; aligning with a broader diplomatic vision and values on the global stage.
Similarly, Qatar has been heading mediations between the Israel-Palestine conflict, connecting Hamas and the West, playing a crucial role in hostage negotiations, ceasefire & de-escalation talks, pressure for acceptance of humanitarian aid, and a coordinator in the financial support for Palestine’s reconstruction.
The rest of the Gulf has also seen increasing diplomatic mediation efforts. Saudi Arabia managed mediation between warring factions in Sudan, creating room for U.S. dialogue. Culminating in 2020, Qatar had hosted Taliban-US negotiations, by being the neutral ground where the Taliban’s political office was stationed, leading to an agreement for the withdrawal of U.S. troops in Afghanistan. Lebanon’s political gridlock was alleviated through mediation and economic support efforts by Qatar, facilitating the election of Joseph Aoun as President of Lebanon. Saudi Arabia arranged the re-entry of Syria into the Arab League by initiating talks and promoting regional stability. The UAE, behind closed doors, has opened communication channels between Pakistan and India, looking to reduce tension in the Kashmir region. Kuwait also led successful mediation efforts during the Gulf crisis, which resolved the most serious internal dispute in the history of the GCC.
Roger Carstens, the United States Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs, said in 2023: “What I can say is that Qatar is playing a very strong and important role as an intermediary. There are times when, of course, the United States does not really have entrée into some of the negotiating groups, and this is a case where Qatar has really been able to bring its gravitas in the region to bear.”
This role which Qatar has, as an Islamic and Arabic-speaking Middle Eastern nation but also a wealthy, trusted, connected member of the Western world, has allowed its intermediary status, one which other Gulf nations are also creating space for.
The Gulf displays itself as not only an ally to the West, but a contender in its model. The Gulf has proved its ability in filling diplomatic vacuums, exhibiting that the power of mediation is not exclusive to the West, while actively creating global financial and innovation hubs, featuring multinational HQs, and UN offices in cities that are nothing short of futuristic desert mirages – while much of the West crumbles under crippling and dated infrastructure.
This could be a signal to the West for change, perhaps a switch in its focus. By actively investing in markets outside of oil, the Gulf is successfully creating civilizations open to the world, and far more welcoming than the traditional Western city, by just about every metric, whether you look at the US. News, or urban safety and cleanliness benchmarks, or the IMD Smart City Index: the Gulf is smashing the charts. From finance and AI to innovation, travel, diplomacy, and inclusivity, the Gulf is actively surpassing Western metropolises, becoming the go-to global destination of choice.
Maximilian Malawista is a student at the University of Buffalo where he majors in Philosophy, Politics and Economics (PPE), Global Affairs, and English.
IPS UN Bureau
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